Ethiopia back to civil war? Horn of Africa fears spillover effect of renewed fighting

Renewed clashes between Ethiopian federal authorities and forces in the northern Tigray region have sparked grave concerns about a potential return to full-scale civil conflict and wider instability across the Horn of Africa, according to a report by France 24.

The resurgence in violence follows an offensive launched in multiple areas by Tigrayan forces against the central government, with armed fighters seen patrolling streets in the regional capital of Mekelle. The escalation highlights the fragility of peace efforts after the collapse of talks connected to the 2022 Pretoria accord, which previously paused the devastating fighting in the country.

Unsettled political and security disputes between Addis Ababa and regional authorities in Tigray have reignited under drastically altered geopolitical circumstances. Over the past four years, key regional alliances have fractured. Eritrea, which previously fought alongside Ethiopian federal troops during earlier rounds of the conflict, is no longer aligned with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's administration.

At the same time, diplomatic tensions have deepened with neighboring states. The Ethiopian government has leveled accusations against Egypt and Sudan, alleging that both nations are offering support to Tigray People's Liberation Front fighters. These claims come against the backdrop of long-standing friction over regional influence and major infrastructure disputes, including the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.

The wider neighborhood is already under severe strain. Neighboring Sudan continues to be ravaged by its own brutal internal war, during which Abiy has faced allegations of aligning with the United Arab Emirates, an actor heavily scrutinized for supplying weapons to the Rapid Support Forces paramilitary group. Observers warn that if Ethiopian violence escalates further, the interplay of regional rivalries and foreign involvement could ignite a broader, interconnected crisis across the Horn of Africa.

International analysts note that while geopolitical strains around the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb strait have heightened regional anxieties, the core driver of the current crisis remains Ethiopia's unresolved domestic divisions. With dialogue stalled and historic alliances shifting, regional observers fear that preventing an all-out war may prove far more difficult than in previous years.