Ethiopia blames regional rivals as risk of conflict spillover rises

Ethiopia has accused Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt of supporting armed opposition groups operating within its borders, as renewed fighting in the country's north stokes concern that the conflict could pull in neighboring states, according to Al Jazeera.

Ethiopian army chief Field Marshal Birhanu Jula said over the weekend that the unrest facing his country stemmed from what he described as Ethiopia's longtime adversaries. He described Eritrea as a conduit linking Ethiopia's internal armed factions with outside backers, naming Sudan and Egypt directly as those foreign supporters, Al Jazeera reported.

All three countries have denied the allegations. An Egyptian Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Nader Zaki, told Al Jazeera that Egypt's foreign policy rests on respecting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of other nations and does not involve interference in their internal matters. He said Cairo remains committed to international law and the United Nations Charter and opposes any conduct that threatens regional stability.

Samir Farag, a retired Egyptian general who once led the armed forces' morale affairs department, also rejected the claims against his country, telling Al Jazeera that interfering in the internal affairs of regional states has never been Egyptian policy.

Sudan's military likewise called the accusations baseless and countered by alleging that Ethiopia has been supporting the Rapid Support Forces, the paramilitary group that has been at war with Sudan's armed forces since 2023. Ethiopia has denied that claim.

The dispute unfolds against a backdrop of already fraught relations. Egypt and Ethiopia have long been at odds over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, a Nile River project that Cairo fears could restrict its water supply, and their rivalry has increasingly extended into regional security matters and competition over the Red Sea and Horn of Africa, according to Al Jazeera.

Sudan has separately accused Ethiopia of providing the Rapid Support Forces with training, supplies and access to Ethiopian territory since Sudan's civil war began. Eritrea, once an ally that fought alongside Ethiopian forces against Tigrayan rebels between 2020 and 2022, has since drifted into tension with Addis Ababa, partly over Ethiopian ambitions to secure Red Sea access, the outlet reported.

Some analysts and Ethiopian opposition figures suggest the government's accusations are intended to rally domestic support by framing the conflict as the product of foreign interference. Mohamed Selim, deputy chair of the African Affairs Committee in Egypt's parliament, told Al Jazeera he believes Ethiopia is using the claims to deflect from internal problems and unite public opinion behind the military.

Amani al-Tawil, who heads the Africa Programme at Cairo's Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies, offered a similar assessment, calling the accusations an effort to divert attention from domestic crises. She questioned the logic of Egypt intervening militarily in Ethiopia now, noting the two countries have been locked in dispute over the dam since 2011. She also pointed to a newly formed opposition coalition of seven groups representing various Ethiopian ethnic and regional interests, announced last week, as a fresh challenge for the federal government.

The fighting has spread across Tigray into the neighboring Amhara and Afar regions. Mohammed Hussein, who chairs the ruling Prosperity Party's branch office in Afar, told Al Jazeera the three regions combined hold more than 38 million people and include territory near the borders with Djibouti and Eritrea, fueling worries about a wider regional war.

Ammar Arki, a writer who covers Horn of Africa affairs, told Al Jazeera that Ethiopia has previously blamed Sudan, Egypt and Eritrea at different points for domestic instability. He said the latest claims may again be aimed at shifting focus toward an external threat to consolidate support for the federal government. However, he cautioned that if Addis Ababa keeps framing its internal conflict as a foreign conspiracy, especially if neighboring governments respond in kind, the chances increase that the fighting could expand beyond Ethiopia's borders into a broader regional confrontation.