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US-Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz crisisPage 7 of 11

A military and diplomatic confrontation between the United States and Iran has escalated following US strikes and threats, with fighting affecting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has proposed a seven-day plan to reopen the strait, which Trump has rejected, while both sides continue talks. The conflict has drawn in regional players including Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Iraq, and has disrupted oil markets and aviation.

World· Verified

Istanbul to host joint security talks between R-4 bloc and European powers

Turkiye will host an R-4 and an R-4+E-3 meeting of foreign ministers in Istanbul on October 23, the Turkish foreign ministry said on Thursday. The R-4 group, which comprises Pakistan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Turkiye, emerged in March and has been focusing on regional security and mediation efforts between the United States and Iran. The E-3 group is a trio of European powers — France, Britain and Germany — that was set up more than 20 years ago to advance diplomatic coordination over Iran’s nuclear programme. The Foreign Office in Islamabad has yet to comment on the planned meetings and Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar’s participation. A Turkish diplomatic source told Reuters that the seven countries would meet in the R-4+E-3 format for the first time at Turkiye’s initiative as wars involving Iran, Yemen and Ukraine threaten shipping routes and regional security. The ministers are expected to discuss the Israeli-Palestinian issue, the latest situation in the Strait of Hormuz, developments related to Yemen, efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine war, and opportunities for closer cooperation between the regional and European countries, the source added. Fidan is expected to emphasise the need for a diplomatic solution to the war between the United States and Iran, the importance of freedom of navigation in the straits of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab, and reiterate Turkiye’s support for Saudi Arabia’s security against attacks by Yemen’s Houthi rebels under the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement signed by Islamabad, Ankara, and Riyadh, they said. Fidan will also tell counterparts that Turkiye has been working to stop the war in Ukraine from spreading to the Black Sea, pointing to the regional security risks posed by the conflict, the source said.

World· Developing

Iran warns Gulf energy and tech sites face retaliation if US and Israel attack

Iran’s security chiefs say there will be ‘zero red lines’ if Trump and Netanyahu attack again Iran will strike oil facilities, undersea cables, datacentres and AI facilities across as many as seven countries in the Gulf in the event of a fresh US-Israeli attack, Mohsen Rezaei, the secretary of Iran’s supreme national security council, has said. Mehdi Mohammadi, an adviser to Mohammad Ghalibaf, the hardliner who led Iran’s negotiations with the US to end the conflict between the two countries, said Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu had agreed in principle on an attack, but could not guarantee a successful outcome. He added: “We see the next conflict as an existential threat. The third war in two years means a threat to existence. Our strategy is ‘zero red lines’.” Continue reading...

Business· Developing

Pakistan and Middle East economies face 1.3pc decline over Iran conflict, IMF says

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Thursday forecast a sharp drop in economic output in Pakistan, the Middle East and North Africa this year due to the US-Israeli-led war against Iran, followed by a rebound to 6.6 per cent growth in 2027, while warning that further energy production disruptions could worsen the outlook. The IMF said the region’s output was expected to contract by 1.3pc as a result of the war’s impact on energy production, shipping, tourism, trade and confidence. Economic output would increase sharply in 2027, but output in those economies would generally stay below pre-war projections. The war’s impact had been substantial, but uneven, with oil-exporting economies directly affected by disruptions to energy production and shipping hit harder, and oil importers proving to be more resilient, the IMF said in its regional outlook released Thursday in Dubai. The IMF said its baseline assumed that the conflict would abate in early 2027 and that trade would gradually normalise during the year, but it said the outlook remained clouded by “exceptionally high uncertainty.” “The main risks derive from further disruption to energy production and trade routes that could drive energy prices higher,” the IMF said in a statement outlining its key messages, noting external financial conditions could also tighten. External financial conditions could also tighten if investors reassess AI-driven productivity gains and interest rates rise further amid heightened concerns about inflation and fiscal positions, it said. Oil importers had proven more resilient, with domestic demand supported by remittances and tourism flows, favourable financial conditions, and prompt policy responses that safeguard consumers from higher commodity prices, the IMF said. Growth in the Caucasus and Central Asia was moderating toward a more sustainable pace, the IMF said, forecasting a 5.2pc rise in economic output in 2026 and 5pc in 2027. The IMF underscored the mantra it delivered during last week’s annual meetings, urging policymakers to prioritise maintaining price stability, while preserving fiscal sustainability, maintaining central bank independence and enacting structural reforms to boost productivity and create jobs.

World· Verified

Iran urges US to take first steps in talks as Pakistan mediates

ISLAMABAD: Iranian leaders have told Pakistan that the United States must take the first steps to rebuild trust, and that the acceptance of Tehran’s seven-point proposal could provide a starting point for renewed negotiations. The message was conveyed during Chief of Defence Forces and Chief of Army Staff Field Marshal Asim Munir’s visit on Tuesday, where he met with President Masoud Pezeshkian, Parliament Speaker Bagher Ghalibaf, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Mohsen Rezaei, a representative of Iran’s supreme leader and secretary of the Supreme National Security Council. Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi also accompanied the army chief. As diplomatic efforts intensified to prevent a resumption of hostilities, Field Marshal Munir’s visit is being viewed as a move to quell escalating regional tensions. Tehran says acceptance of its 7-point proposal can be starting point for renewed talks with US The visit came a day after Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov held talks with Iranian leaders on the conflict and efforts to restore regional stability. The visit was aimed at conveying messages and exploring whether the Islamabad understanding could still provide a basis for negotiations, but no breakthrough or formal agreement was announced after Tuesday’s meetings. The discussions also touched on bilateral relations, including a recent disruption in commercial trade across the Pakistan-Iran border. Iranian officials also raised concerns over the closure, while Field Marshal Munir told them that the border closure was temporary and due to technical reasons and that the crossings had reopened on Tuesday. Importantly, Iranian officials reportedly shared with the field marshal their response to a US proposal, reiterating that Tehran would not make concessions under pressure and that Washington must meet its conditions before trust could be restored. While there was no official word from Pakistan’s Foreign Office or Inter-Services Public Relations, Iranian media described the response as “clear, serious, and explicit”. An Iranian source said the visiting Pakistani army chief was told that “Iran has nothing new to say to the Americans” and it was for them to return to Islamabad Memorandum. Although not many details about President Pezeshkian’s meeting were released to media, in a post that was unrelated to his meeting with Field Marshal Munir, the president said that Iranians may endure hardship, but they will not surrender their land. Speaker Ghalibaf told Field Marshal Munir that the US could not regain Iran’s trust without fulfilling the seven conditions Tehran had presented during meetings in New York. He said Washington’s past actions, including what Iran considers a violation of the Islamabad understanding, had only deepened its distrust of the US administration. “Threats and military manoeuvres cannot influence the strategic decisions of the Islamic Republic of Iran,” Mr Ghalibaf said, according to an Iranian account of the meeting, adding that it was now up to Washington to take the necessary steps to extricate itself from the conflict. Mr Rezaei, meanwhile, said Iran would not surrender its enriched nuclear material, describing it as a national asset intended for domestic use. He said Iranian officials were united in their view that negotiations could not proceed without steps by Washington to meet Tehran’s conditions. The inflexible Iranian response has thrown a challenge for Pakistan, which has sought to revive negotiations between Washington and Tehran after an earlier diplomatic breakthrough failed to produce a lasting settlement. Islamabad brokered a ceasefire in April and hosted direct talks that led to the signing of the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding in June. The agreement outlined steps towards easing the conflict, reopening the Strait of Hormuz and addressing economic and nuclear issues, but the process subsequently stalled after disagreements. Despite the breakdown of the peace process, Pakistan has continued to offer its good offices to both sides for preventing another round of fighting. Published in Dawn, October 21st, 2026

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