Middle East oil exports climb past pre-war levels as tankers bypass Hormuz

Middle East oil exports have rebounded above pre-conflict levels despite severe regional shipping tensions, reaching an average of 24.6 million barrels per day in mid-October, according to energy tracking data.

Data compiled by market intelligence company Kpler revealed that daily crude shipments from the region, excluding Iran, hit 24.6 million barrels in the week ending October 18. That total exceeds the 23.3 million barrels per day recorded prior to the outbreak of hostilities involving the United States, Israel and Iran.

The recovery has been driven largely by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which have adjusted logistics to bypass the vulnerable Strait of Hormuz. By redirecting supplies through overland pipelines and coordinating offshore ship-to-ship transfers, both nations have managed to sustain robust outward flows.

The shifting logistics represent a major change in transport patterns. Before the conflict, roughly 83 percent of Middle Eastern crude moved directly through the Strait of Hormuz. By September, Kpler reported that 40 percent of exported crude circumvented the chokepoint entirely, up from just 17 percent previously.

Three principal transit pathways currently support regional exports. Direct navigation through the strait accounted for about 60 percent of September shipments, totaling approximately 9.9 million barrels daily. Ports in the Gulf of Oman, led by the UAE hub of Fujairah, handled 23 percent, while Saudi terminals on the Red Sea managed the remaining 17 percent.

Key overland infrastructure made this pivot possible. Saudi Arabia increased utilization of its 1,201-kilometer East-West Petroline, moving crude across the country from the Eastern Province to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Similarly, the UAE expanded shipments through its 406-kilometer Habshan-Fujairah pipeline, which links interior oil fields directly to loading berths situated outside the Persian Gulf.

To handle barrels that still traverse the strait, operators have increasingly established offshore transfer hubs. Rather than sailing straight to overseas destinations, many tankers now function as short-haul shuttles. During August, more than 70 percent of crude passing through Hormuz was transferred onto other vessels in open water near Fujairah or the Omani port of Sohar.

Monitoring these movements has proven challenging for tracking specialists, as numerous vessels disable automatic identification transponders while traveling through high-risk zones, requiring observers to cross-reference satellite imagery and port registries.

While volume has recovered, the adaptations come with significant financial consequences. The International Energy Agency and shipping reports note that charter rates and war-risk insurance premiums have soared, adding substantial expenses to every shipment.

The rebound has also bypassed Iran itself, where oil exports continue to face severe restrictions under a US blockade, leaving Tehran largely isolated from the regional export revival.