Trump promises not to attack Iran before November’s US midterms

United States President Donald Trump announced on Thursday that American forces will refrain from launching strikes against Iran ahead of the upcoming midterm elections on November 3. The declaration signals a temporary halt in a conflict that has dragged on for nearly eight months, according to a report by The Guardian.

Publishing the statement on his Truth Social platform, Trump said that Washington was currently engaged in productive discussions with the government in Tehran. He asserted that Iran was in an extremely weakened state, both economically and militarily, while also reaffirming his stance that Tehran would not be permitted to develop a nuclear weapon. His post did not elaborate on what American military posture or actions might look like once the election passes.

The protracted conflict began in late February when joint strikes by the US and Israel effectively shut down traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a maritime chokepoint that previously handled roughly a fifth of global petroleum and liquefied natural gas shipments. The US military subsequently instituted a blockade of the passage in April following failed negotiations in Islamabad, reviving the measure in July after an earlier agreement collapsed. Despite ongoing tensions, Trump claimed that 22 million barrels of oil traversed the waterway in a single night, asserting that none involved Iranian trade, though this figure could not be verified independently.

Hostilities intensified again in early September after American forces targeted rocket installations located on Iran's Larak Island. In retaliation, Iranian forces launched missile strikes directed at American military installations situated in Jordan and the United Arab Emirates.

The decision to pause offensive actions comes amid mounting political pressure at home. While Trump had previously claimed in early September that the approaching midterms did not influence his decisions, his tone shifted as the month progressed. He later suggested the conflict would likely conclude shortly after ballots were cast, while admitting that domestic oil prices were not expected to drop before election day.

Public support for the administration's military campaign has steadily deteriorated. A late September Reuters/Ipsos poll revealed that merely about a third of Americans supported the military strikes against Iran, while more than four out of five respondents anticipated an extended conflict. The survey also recorded a nine-point decline in Trump's approval rating among Republican voters within a single week, dropping from 82% to 73%.

Those shifting attitudes have coincided with broader electoral challenges for the president's party. Polling averages compiled by analyst Nate Silver show Democrats establishing a roughly nine-point advantage over Republicans on the generic congressional ballot, marking their largest margin of the current cycle. Furthermore, The Wall Street Journal reported that Vice-President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio had cautioned Trump behind closed doors that the war could persist throughout his remaining time in office.