Poll: Latino voters swing away from Trump and Republicans

Latino voters across the United States are sharply moving away from President Donald Trump and the Republican Party ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, reversing key gains that helped return him to the White House two years ago, according to a new NBC News/Telemundo survey.

The poll shows Trump's approval rating among Latino voters has tumbled to 27 percent. Dissatisfaction is heavily anchored in frustration over the cost of living and administration actions on immigration. About three-quarters of respondents disapprove of how the president has managed the economy, while two-thirds believe his administration's deportation measures have gone too far.

The shift presents a significant opening for Democrats heading into the midterm elections, which may turn on races in competitive districts and states with sizable Hispanic populations, including Texas, Florida and Nevada. When asked which party should control Congress, Latino voters favored Democrats by a 24-point margin, 59 percent to 35 percent. That lead is roughly twice the advantage Democrats held with the group at the same stage in 2024.

Republicans had previously built their congressional defense strategy around their 2024 breakthroughs with Latino voters, including drawing heavily Latino districts in Texas and Florida that appeared safely conservative based on presidential turnout. However, the survey indicates that nearly one in five Latino voters who supported Trump in 2024 now do not want a Republican-led Congress, with 14 percent outright preferring Democratic leadership and 8 percent undecided.

The data reveals a dramatic turnaround on key electoral concerns. While Latino voters favored Trump by four points over Kamala Harris on the economy two years ago, Democrats now hold a 21-point advantage on that issue. Democrats also lead on managing immigration, fighting corruption and handling healthcare. Inflation and the cost of living emerged as the primary concern, cited by 33 percent as their top priority and by 52 percent as one of their top two concerns. Among voters prioritizing living costs, Democrats lead by 22 points.

Conducted between Sept. 21 and Sept. 28 by Hart Research Associates and Public Opinion Strategies, the survey highlights deep economic anxiety. Sixty-five percent of Latino respondents said the president's economic policies have caused harm, compared to 23 percent who said they helped. Among Latino independents, 72 percent reported that administration policies damaged the economy, while just 10 percent saw positive results.

Trump's evaluations on foreign policy, living costs and the broader economy fall below the levels recorded for former President Joe Biden among Latino voters in September 2022. Trump's strongest tested category was border security, where 39 percent approved of his approach and 58 percent disapproved.

Pollsters cautioned that the trends do not necessarily reflect rising enthusiasm for Democrats, whose own image has not materially improved over the past two years. Rather, researchers noted that the current Democratic advantage is primarily fueled by pushback against Trump's agenda and persistent economic pressures. Despite the recent declines, Republican support among Latinos remains higher than in pre-2024 midterm polling cycles reaching back to 2012.