Israel and US could weigh renewed Iran strikes following vote, analysts say

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could seek to launch fresh military strikes against Iran alongside the United States following his party's performance in national elections, according to analysts speaking to The National. Observers suggest that action could potentially be scheduled following the upcoming midterm elections in the United States.

Netanyahu secured the highest number of seats in the recent parliamentary vote, reinforcing his standing among voters as a wartime leader. During the campaign, the prime minister emphasized what he described as an existential threat from Tehran, even publishing an artificially generated image depicting a nuclear blast over Tel Aviv. Analysts suggest he may view the current political environment as an opportunity to push for the collapse of Iran's leadership, which he has long regarded as a primary objective.

Cooperation with Washington is considered central to any potential offensive. Geopolitical analyst Calev Ben-Dor noted that US President Donald Trump may hold strong incentives to act, particularly given Tehran's stance regarding the Strait of Hormuz, which has driven up international oil prices, alongside Iranian calls for financial compensation. Observers suggest Washington might avoid ordering strikes before its own legislative elections to keep domestic fuel costs steady, but could reconsider military measures immediately afterward while seeking a stricter arrangement concerning Iran's nuclear development.

However, security specialists have cast doubt on the strategic viability of launching another offensive. Former British intelligence officer Lynette Nusbacher argued that Israel has no clear national security rationale to resume open conflict, warning that the move would serve primarily domestic political aims. She also noted that an aerial bombardment is improbable to spark an internal uprising or bring down the Iranian administration, which has developed extensive resilience against outside military campaigns.

Strategic concerns also linger within Israel's defense establishment. A domestic security source questioned the expected outcome of a new operation, recalling that a prior 38-day strike campaign did not unseat the Iranian government. Richard Pater, who heads the Bicom think tank, emphasized that Israel's military leaders must provide a frank assessment of whether regime collapse is feasible through force.

Broader regional repercussions present additional obstacles. Regional partners in the Gulf would require careful consultation before any strikes, as analysts warn that Iranian retaliatory missile salvos would likely endanger energy and transport infrastructure across neighboring countries. Furthermore, with no willingness in Washington to commit ground forces to a large-scale land deployment, defense analysts caution that air operations alone cannot easily reshape the regional balance of power.