US midterm sweep offers Democrats fragile opening to rebuild democratic norms

Imagine, for a moment, that the US midterm elections had not delivered Democratic wins at a generational scale, but merely a trickle of flipped seats—enough, perhaps, to change control of the House of Representatives but not enough for a Senate majority. Is there any doubt that President Donald Trump would embrace such results as a good-enough validation of his often lawless and brutal administration? Would it not now be doubling down, striving to cast the polls as an imprimatur for its excesses? Instead, American democracy skirted a disabling blow. Yet it would be a grave mistake to take a further step by concluding that voters’ overwhelming rejection of Trump and his Republican Party marks a full-throated public re-embrace of democracy. The election was a disaster averted, but it was only an opening to assess and fix the damage caused by two years of a rogue administration acting without congressional oversight. The Democrats’ landslide victory could set America’s now clearly imperfect democracy on the difficult path of repair and improvement. But this opportunity could slip away unless seized swiftly. Conventional wisdom about the midterm results is already resurrecting James Carville’s old adage: “It’s the economy, stupid.” There is, indeed, a kernel of truth to this. The Associated Press exit poll conducted on election day flagged economic discontent as voters’ top concern. Likewise, a Gallup poll from a week beforehand also found voters ranking inflation and health care as the most important issues. Against this backdrop, the bizarre optics of Trump’s midterm campaigning—Look at my reflecting pool! My beautiful ballroom! What about Jon Husted’s great butt!—underscore Trump’s surreal detachment from everyday voters’ woes. So potent is this story that most influential media outlets are offering inflation and affordability as catch-all explanations for the Democrats’ sweep through states Republicans had held for decades. And it is easy to see this simple story becoming a guiding light for anti-Trump figures, including among Republicans, for the next two years. This emerging consensus captures an important part of the story, but also overlooks an important finding. According to the AP exit poll, almost one-third of voters named the health of democracy as their top concern—just six points behind the economy—while the Gallup poll appears not to have asked respondents about the issue at all. Concerns over democracy and the rule of law also help explain the massive swings among Hispanic and Black voters. A UnidosUS survey of Hispanics found that immigration “overreach”—that is, flagrant disregard for the rule of law—was a leading concern. Anecdotal evidence suggests that Black turnout was driven by anger at the dismantling of the landmark 1965 Voting Rights Act—that is, by outrage at right-wing judges’ frontal assault on multiracial democracy. The affordability narrative risks overshadowing this strong public demand for democracy and even erasing it from the shared public memory of this election. That understanding of history creates a trap for Democrats, leaving the new House and Senate majorities a hostage to fortune, or worse. While control of the House and the Senate offers them a few policy tools with which to address inflation and affordability, those tools may not work quickly, and Trump retains broad control over trade policy and war-making. Indeed, because Trump can still make things worse, it is reasonable to think that there will be scant improvement in economic sentiment two years from now. No doubt, the Republican presidential nominee in 2028 will pin the blame on the Democrats. At a minimum, the picture will be muddy. Despite this risk, the affordability narrative is seductive to many Democrats, because it means they don’t need to think about the structural problems with American democracy. Consider here rampant electoral gerrymandering, the Senate’s malapportionment favoring rural populations, and the egregious inflation of judicial power. This time, the size of the Democratic wave overcame those barriers. But it would be reckless to count on that in the future, particularly as Trump retains powerful tools to erode democratic norms further. The Democrats, then, would be wise to lean into the democracy message by pressing for more structural change—not only because it is the principled thing to do, but also because it is in their political interest. This does not mean simply focusing on the Trump family’s venality. Highlighting corruption can be politically effective, as the midterm results showed. But unless the strong linkage between corruption and a weakening of democracy is made explicit—how the scramble for spoils overcomes representation of voters and their interests—scandalous revelations can also breed disabling cynicism and even voter apathy. The US midterm election results are an opportunity and an invitation. Voters’ demand for the rule of law and democracy has helped destroy Trump’s MAGA movement. That demand must not be forgotten or suppressed. The Democrats have opportunities, in Congress and also in newly-won state capitals, to show voters they understand that only democracy will be responsive on the economic front. Affordability may rank first, but addressing it depends on the quality of democratic institutions. Americans have given the Democrats the chance to show why that is true. They must not squander it. This article was originally published on Project Syndicate and has been reproduced here with permission.

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