US midterm early voting tops 43 million with surge among Hispanic voters

More than 43 million Americans have cast their ballots ahead of the upcoming US midterm elections, according to data tracked by the University of Florida Election Lab. The surge in advance participation comes with less than a week remaining before polling day, when voters will decide which party secures control of Congress for the remainder of Donald Trump's presidential term.

Tracking figures indicate that between four and five million early votes are being recorded every day, marking a notably quicker pace than seen in most prior election cycles. Professor Mike McDonald, who directs the University of Florida database, noted that overall engagement is currently on track to exceed levels recorded in 2020 and could potentially top the high-water mark set during the 2018 midterm elections.

Texas is experiencing a particularly pronounced influx of early voters. The state has already logged more than 5.8 million ballots, exceeding its 2022 early voting total by roughly 1.75 million. High participation has been especially evident in counties situated along the border with Mexico, where Hispanic residents make up over 90% of the population. McDonald stated that several of these areas appear likely to surpass their entire 2022 voting totals during the early voting window alone.

Information gathered from states that track party affiliation during primary nominating contests shows an uptick in Democratic participation, while Republican numbers remain largely consistent with figures from 2022. Across the states where such records are kept, Democrats accounted for roughly 44% of early ballots submitted, compared to 31.2% by Republicans and 24.7% by unaffiliated electors. Those statistics do not confirm which candidates individuals chose on their ballots.

Demographic data from Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina—states where electors indicate race upon registration—demonstrate rising turnout among Black and Hispanic voters, whereas participation among white voters has remained steady relative to 2022. McDonald attributed this trend to historical voting patterns, noting that communities of color generally align more often with Democratic coalitions, while white voters more frequently support Republicans.

Advance voting practices have shifted noticeably since expanding rapidly during the Covid-19 pandemic. While mail-in ballots dominated the 2020 presidential cycle, voters are increasingly choosing to cast their early ballots in person. Electors are also submitting their votes earlier in the window than in past years. McDonald suggested this change could stem from concerns regarding postal reliability or fears of technical errors that can lead to mail ballot disqualifications, though precise data on voter motivations remains limited.

Local election administrators in several areas have reported unprecedented volume, with the city of Minneapolis confirming a new early voting record for a non-presidential cycle. Advance voting periods are scheduled to close across most states in the coming days ahead of the final vote on Tuesday.