OPEC reports global oil output near pre-war levels as Saudi extraction surges

Global crude output has rebounded toward levels seen before military conflict erupted with Iran earlier this year, driven by significant production surges from major exporters, according to OPEC's latest monthly assessment.

Data from the producer alliance revealed that Saudi Arabia increased its extraction to 10.563 million barrels per day in October. That represents a jump of more than two million barrels per day compared to September figures, marking the kingdom's highest output since late February, when it extracted 10.882 million barrels per day just prior to US and Israeli military action against Iran.

The wider OPEC+ coalition, which incorporates OPEC members alongside partners such as Russia, lifted total output to 41.23 million barrels per day in October. That was an increase of approximately 2.04 million barrels daily from the preceding month, bringing total supply to 97 percent of the 42.72 million barrels per day generated in February.

Russian supplies also rose after US President Donald Trump removed sanctions targeting Russian energy assets and revealed a mid-October energy ceasefire between Moscow and Kyiv.

The recovery comes despite ongoing shipping hurdles in the Persian Gulf, where conflict previously severed transit through the Strait of Hormuz, an artery that typically carries roughly one-fifth of global oil supplies. Regional exporters have turned to alternative logistics, including ship-to-ship transfers, to sustain international deliveries.

Saudi Arabia has also relied on its East-West Pipeline to transport crude across its territory to the Red Sea terminal at Yanbu, avoiding the Hormuz bottleneck, although the conduit has faced repeated attacks from Houthi forces in Yemen. Similarly, the United Arab Emirates has leveraged its pipeline running to Fujairah to maintain shipments outside the strait.

OPEC reported that the UAE reclaimed the position of top supplier in September with a 49 percent market share, up from 25 percent in August. The United States ranked second at 28 percent, while Saudi Arabia accounted for 14 percent. Japan, however, experienced a steep decline in crude imports during September due to revived transport bottlenecks.

Higher crude volumes have coincided with some price relief for consumers, with retail gasoline in the United States dipping under $4 per gallon for the first time in several months. US annual personal consumption expenditures inflation had earlier climbed from 2.9 percent in February to a peak of 4.1 percent in May as energy markets absorbed the conflict shock.

OPEC kept its world oil demand projections steady following six consecutive months of downgrades. The cartel anticipates consumption to expand by 180,000 barrels per day in 2026, followed by an increase of 2.55 million barrels per day in 2027 to average 108.3 million barrels daily. Outside the core group, non-OPEC liquids growth in 2027 is projected to be led by Qatar, Canada, Brazil and Argentina.