Iran warns of potential pre-emptive strikes as US pressure mounts

Iranian authorities believe the United States is preparing either fresh military operations or an escalating economic blockade, prompting figures in Tehran to warn that the country could launch pre-emptive strikes to break the current deadlock.

The warning was detailed by Mehdi Mohammadi, an adviser to Iran's chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. Writing on his Telegram channel, Mohammadi dismissed assertions from Washington that military measures had been shelved, suggesting instead that the US administration has set an approximate two-week window before President Donald Trump decides on prospective strikes. Mohammadi claimed Washington is weighing a limited offensive, adding that Iran is already formulating its military response.

According to Mohammadi, prolonged economic isolation could compel Iran to initiate a broad pre-emptive conflict to drive up the cost of sanctions for the US. He characterized recent American diplomatic replies regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz as deceptive and inadequate, noting that Washington has refused to unfreeze Iranian assets, lift economic restrictions, or halt fighting in Lebanon. He also revealed that Tehran recently turned down an overture from US Vice-President JD Vance for direct negotiations.

The escalating tension comes as Washington maintains a strategy aimed at throttling Iranian oil shipments while helping other Gulf countries navigate the Strait of Hormuz. Despite Iranian attempts to enforce a maritime blockade, international oil markets have seen Brent crude trade near $93 a barrel, with Saudi production hovering around 9.3 million barrels per day. In response to regional movements, Iran acknowledged targeting a US radar installation on the Omani island of Didamar earlier in the week.

Within Tehran, some officials are concerned that severe economic distress could reignite nationwide civil unrest ahead of the anniversary of major demonstrations that erupted late last year. This risk has led hardline strategists to argue that the current state of neither open war nor peace cannot endure.

Iranian officials are also issuing stern warnings to other international powers. Mohsen Rezaei, the secretary of Iran's national security council, stated that Tehran informed Russia it would not transfer any of its enriched uranium reserves abroad, arguing the material is intended for future nuclear-powered submarines. Rezaei further cautioned that any overseas base hosting American aircraft used to attack Iran would face direct retaliatory strikes.

Concurrently, Mohammad Mokhber, an adviser to Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, cautioned European nations that cooperating with the US blockade would be viewed as an act of war.

In Washington, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicated that economic pressure remains the primary focus, dismissing Tehran's negotiating demands as unrealistic. However, Trump faces domestic pressure over the standoff, with a Reuters/Ipsos poll showing 71 percent of Americans favour congressional action to halt the conflict. While the recent midterm elections demonstrated public fatigue with the confrontation, the incoming congressional leadership has yet to present a definitive plan to resolve the crisis.