New Hampshire Senate battle tightens as Pappas and Sununu clash over Trump

Democratic Representative Chris Pappas and Republican former senator John Sununu are locked in a closely watched contest for New Hampshire's open US Senate seat, as national party control of the chamber hangs in the balance.

The vacancy created by retiring Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen has turned the state into a crucial midterm battleground. Democrats, aiming to pick up four seats to secure a Senate majority, cannot afford to drop a seat in a state that rejected Donald Trump in three consecutive presidential elections. After September surveys revealed a near-tie that unsettled Democrats, the race shifted back toward Pappas, with the Cook Political Report updating its assessment in early October from a toss-up to leaning Democratic.

Pappas, a four-term US representative who would become the first openly gay man elected to the Senate, has cautioned supporters against complacency in a swing state known for independent-minded voters. His closing campaign pitch has heavily centered on linking Sununu to Trump, whose approval rating stood at 32 percent in a recent University of New Hampshire poll. High-profile national Democrats, including Arizona Senator Mark Kelly and former Vice President Kamala Harris, have joined Pappas on the campaign trail in the final days.

Economic strains linked to ongoing conflict with Iran have intensified pressure on the Republican bid, according to The Guardian. Surging fuel costs and elevated heating-oil prices have hit New Hampshire households hard, with more than one-third relying on heating oil as winter approaches.

Sununu, hailing from one of the state's most prominent political families, has countered by highlighting his distance from Trump. He has promoted his past endorsement of Nikki Haley during the 2024 primary, his prior description of Trump as a loser, and his public opposition to administration tariffs on Canadian imports. In a recent advertisement, Sununu claimed he has never met Trump. During their final debate, Sununu rejected claims that he supported ground troop deployments in Iran while pushing back against Pappas's effort to depict him as an administration loyalist.

Ticket-splitting remains a hallmark of New Hampshire politics. Despite having an entirely Democratic congressional contingent, the state has a Republican-led legislature and a Republican governor, Kelly Ayotte, who won in 2024 while the state backed Harris for president. Some local organizations, including firefighter groups in Nashua, are splitting their endorsements between Pappas for the Senate and Ayotte in her gubernatorial re-election bid.

If Sununu defeats Pappas on Tuesday, he will be the first Republican senator elected by New Hampshire voters since 2010. Sununu lost his previous Senate seat in 2008 following voter backlash over the Iraq war, leaving local strategists closely monitoring whether foreign policy fallout will once again sway the outcome.