Israeli election exit polls show Arab party surge, complicating coalition talks

Exit projections from Israel’s general election show significant advances for Arab-Israeli parties, creating a major obstacle for the country’s mainstream opposition as it seeks to assemble a functioning majority.

According to initial exit poll estimates reported by the Guardian, Palestinian parties could secure between 17 and 18 seats in the incoming Knesset, up substantially from their previous total of 10. The surge positions these factions as potential power brokers, leaving opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot facing a choice between negotiating with them or allowing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu an avenue to remain in power.

Eisenkot’s bloc captured a slight advantage over Netanyahu’s governing alliance in the exit polls, although Netanyahu’s Likud party might remain the single largest parliamentary faction. While Eisenkot described the early outcome as a success for Israel’s Zionist majority, securing a stable governing coalition without Arab-Israeli cooperation appears mathematically difficult.

If the final results match early estimates, President Isaac Herzog will decide which leader gets the initial mandate to build a government. Any designated candidate will have six weeks to pull together a coalition before the opportunity shifts to a rival. Throughout that window, Netanyahu’s current administration would continue managing state affairs on an interim basis.

To build a viable administration, Eisenkot would need to engage with either Ra’am, led by Mansour Abbas, or the larger Joint List, or both. Abbas has previous experience in a ruling coalition and reiterated that his primary objective is removing Netanyahu and his right-wing allies from office. However, Ra’am is anticipated to hold only around seven seats, which may fall short of the numbers needed to secure a working majority.

Reaching terms with the Joint List, projected to claim 10 or more seats, would involve far greater political friction. Eisenkot previously presented several preconditions for potential partners, including formally accepting Israel as a Jewish and democratic state, endorsing its founding declaration, backing military service obligations for Arab citizens, and designating Hamas as a terrorist group.

Leaders within the Joint List have pushed back against those stipulations. Amjad Shbita, general secretary of Hadash, the dominant faction in the Joint List, stated that Eisenkot cannot unilaterally dictate conditions and insisted that any discussions must occur between equals who depend on each other.

Failing an explicit pact, the opposition could attempt to establish a minority administration relying on ad hoc, case-by-case backing from Arab lawmakers. Analysts note such an arrangement would remain precarious and could quickly lead to fresh elections, giving Netanyahu an opening to stage another political comeback if the opposition fractures.