Democrats hold seven-point lead ahead of midterms as Trump disapproval peaks

Democrats have opened a seven-point lead over Republicans in the contest for congressional control just days before the midterm elections, according to a national NBC News poll released Sunday.

The survey of registered voters showed 52% prefer Democratic control of Congress, compared to 45% who want Republicans to retain power, widening the two-point margin observed the previous month. Among independent voters, Democrats built a 21-point advantage, while only 3% of respondents remained undecided in the survey conducted between Oct. 28 and Oct. 30.

The results highlight mounting political headwinds for President Donald Trump, whose job disapproval reached 60%, the highest mark recorded across both of his presidential terms in NBC News polling. His approval rating fell to 40%. Roughly two-thirds of respondents indicated they want a departure from Trump's policy direction, including 50% who called for major changes.

Economic unease remains central to voter discontent. About three out of four respondents expressed dissatisfaction with the national economy, and 51% reported being dissatisfied with their personal finances, marking the first time in three decades of the network's polling that dissatisfied personal ratings outnumbered satisfied ones. Price increases alongside the ongoing war involving Iran have weighed heavily on household budgets, with 64% of participants—including a third of Trump voters—stating the president has failed to meet expectations.

Overall, 70% of respondents said the nation is heading in the wrong direction, an increase of nine percentage points over the past year. Inflation and living costs topped voter priorities, followed by government corruption, threats to democracy, and border enforcement. Democrats took a single-point advantage over Republicans on managing inflation, while Republicans held a narrow two-point lead on managing the broader economy.

Despite their congressional lead, Democrats face significant obstacles. The Democratic Party itself remains broadly unpopular, with only 29% holding a positive view compared to 38% for the Republican Party. About half of respondents viewed each party negatively.

Republicans also retain structural advantages through the electoral map, with key races concentrated in territory Trump captured in 2024. However, Trump's standing has eroded in those areas, with 53% of voters across states he carried in 2024 disapproving of his performance. His support has also weakened among non-college-educated white voters, younger demographics, Latino voters, and Republicans outside the MAGA movement, where one in five expressed a preference for Democratic control of Capitol Hill.