Voting in Brazil's 2026 presidential election has begun, with polls showing Lula and Bolsonaro nearly tied

Brazilians have begun casting their ballots in a high-stakes presidential contest pitting the sitting leftist president against the son of his imprisoned predecessor. Current polling indicates a razor-thin gap between the top two contenders, suggesting the race will almost certainly head to a second-round runoff later this month.

Incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is campaigning for a fourth non-consecutive term in office. Challenging him is Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, a 45-year-old lawmaker representing Rio de Janeiro who is attempting to carry forward the right-wing populist agenda launched by his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro. According to research firm Quaest, initial round projections place Lula at 46% support and Bolsonaro closely trailing at 45%. Because neither candidate is projected to clear the 50% hurdle required for an outright win, voters are anticipated to return to the ballot box on October 25.

Both campaigns finished their public appeals on Saturday across Sao Paulo state, the country's most populous and economically influential region. Lula addressed a gathering estimated by organizers at 150,000 people in Sao Paulo city, emphasizing welfare expansion, government-led investment, and wealth redistribution. Casting his vote on Sunday, the 80-year-old leader framed the decision as a critical crossroads between democratic preservation and backwardness.

Meanwhile, Flavio Bolsonaro rallied his base by staging a motorcycle procession through the interior municipalities of Santa Barbara d'Oeste and Americana. During the final rallies, he displayed an image of his father while supporters cheered. Running on pledges to lower taxes and strengthen public safety, the senator has criticized the current administration for living costs and violent crime. Casting his vote on Sunday, he declared that the country requires immediate transformation and can no longer tolerate high taxation and suffering.

The contest serves as a generational continuation of the bitter 2022 campaign, which Lula won by under two percentage points. Jair Bolsonaro is currently imprisoned, serving a 27-year sentence linked to a coup attempt intended to reverse that defeat. The younger Bolsonaro has openly promised to grant his father an official pardon if he wins the presidency. While describing himself as more moderate than the former president, the senator maintains that his father remains his central guide, sharing similar perspectives on loosening firearms restrictions and questioning human-driven climate change.

Foreign relations have also factored into the contest. Lula's camp has raised concerns over the Bolsonaros' relationship with US President Donald Trump, who imposed a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods in reaction to the elder Bolsonaro's trial, which Trump labeled unfair. Trump stated he is monitoring the election outcome carefully, though he has stopped short of issuing a formal endorsement.

The political atmosphere remains intensely polarized, amplified by digital campaigns deploying sophisticated clips and artificial intelligence across social networks. Amid the political tension, reports surfaced in September detailing an investigation into Flavio Bolsonaro regarding potential financial misdeeds and tax avoidance involving a film about his father, allegations he strongly denies.

Beyond the presidential contest, roughly 160 million registered voters across Brazil are selecting governors, senators, and legislative representatives on Sunday.