South Africa municipal elections point to historic slide in ANC support

South Africans cast their ballots in municipal elections on Wednesday, with polling suggesting the ruling African National Congress could suffer major losses following public anger over failing infrastructure, water disruptions and electricity shortages.

Although the historic party that came to power under Nelson Mandela in 1994 remains on course to finish as the biggest single political movement, surveys indicate its support has dropped to less than a third of the total vote. That marks a sharp retreat from the 45.6 percent it secured in the 2021 local elections and the 40.2 percent it achieved during the 2024 national poll.

The expected fragmentation of ballots means coalitions will continue to dominate many of the nation's 257 municipalities. Political observers have repeatedly linked revolving-door municipal governments to declining public services. Johannesburg, home to 4.8 million residents and recently struck by more than a week of water supply failures, has experienced 10 different mayors over the past decade. Nearby Ekurhuleni has sworn in three mayors since 2021, while Tshwane, which includes Pretoria, has seen its mayoral seat change hands four times since 2020. Public health risks have accompanied the breakdown, with more than 800 people in east Tshwane contracting gastrointestinal illnesses from contaminated drinking supplies in October.

The main opposition Democratic Alliance leads polling across all three major metropolitan areas in Gauteng province, although it has remained under 40 percent support. While national ANC figures have expressed willingness to partner with the DA in Gauteng, local party officials reportedly oppose the arrangement. The ANC has instead governed the province's metros alongside groups including the Economic Freedom Fighters, the Patriotic Alliance and ActionSA.

In Johannesburg, the DA campaign has featured Helen Zille, whose publicity efforts included navigating a flooded roadway in a kayak and snorkelling inside a pothole. However, the former Cape Town mayor faces resistance, particularly among Black voters, over prior remarks regarding colonialism, alongside complaints about high housing costs in Cape Town. ActionSA leader Herman Mashaba has ruled out any partnership with Zille, accusing her of racism, a charge she denies. Meanwhile, internal party disputes have left the ANC with three competing contenders for the Johannesburg mayoralty.

In coastal eThekwini, encompassing Durban, former president Jacob Zuma's uMkhonto we Sizwe party is registering more than 40 percent in surveys. That surge comes largely at the expense of the ANC, which took 42 percent in 2021 but has now dropped to around 10 percent in the metro. Further south, the DA is predicted to hold its governing majority in Cape Town, though likely below the 58 percent share it secured in 2021.

South Africa's electoral authorities have seven days to declare the final outcome. Because mayors are chosen by municipal councils rather than directly by citizens, political parties will then have two weeks after the results announcement to negotiate coalitions and appoint local leaders.