Pacific ocean temperatures reach record highs as intense El Niño strengthens

Ocean waters in the Pacific are reaching unprecedented temperatures as an exceptionally powerful El Niño pattern intensifies ahead of its projected winter peak, meteorological agencies and researchers report.

According to Australia's Bureau of Meteorology, mean weekly sea-surface measurements across the central Pacific have hit the highest marks ever observed. The surge follows an earlier milestone in September, when daily ocean surface readings in the central-eastern equatorial belt surpassed the highs recorded during the intense El Niño of 2015. Portions of the tropical Pacific have crossed 30 degrees Celsius for the first time, accompanied by extraordinary subsurface heat and extreme temperature anomalies.

The phenomenon occurs naturally every two to seven years and usually persists for around 12 months. However, broader marine warming driven by human activity is complicating direct comparisons with historical episodes. To account for baseline climate shifts, meteorologists in Australia and the United States have adopted the Relative Ocean El Niño Index. Under this metric, Australian weekly observations—compiled since 2008—already outstrip the previous peak set in December 2015.

Berkeley Earth climate researcher Dr Zeke Hausfather told the BBC that current conditions represent an occurrence without precedent in recorded history. He noted that the excessive warmth is no longer confined to the usual equatorial zone, spilling outward across wider expanses of the Pacific basin and reaching into the Gulf of Mexico. This dispersion contrasts sharply with prior major events documented in 1972-73, 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16.

While the World Meteorological Organization notes there is presently no clear proof that global climate change increases the frequency or intensity of El Niño, the event itself discharges vast quantities of marine warmth into the air. Combined with human-induced heating, the phenomenon is projected to push 2026 into the ranks of the hottest years ever recorded, with extreme warmth expected to persist into 2027.

Worldwide consequences are already emerging, matching disruptions seen during past major occurrences. The 1997-98 event produced severe droughts in southeast Asia alongside catastrophic flooding across East Africa. Similarly, the 2015-16 cycle caused intense dry spells and wildfires in southeast Asia and severe drought in southern Africa. Typical shifts in storm activity have also returned during 2026, dampening Atlantic hurricane formation while intensifying cyclonic systems in parts of the Pacific.

The World Meteorological Organization has warned of early flood and drought emergencies affecting food supplies in the Asia-Pacific region and East Africa. With models from European and American forecasting agencies pointing to a maximum strength in December, projections suggest the event could eclipse past historical benchmarks by substantial margins.