Hezbollah intervention tied to survival of Iranian leadership, Lebanese official says

Hezbollah is expected to stay out of any renewed military conflict between the United States and Iran unless Tehran's governing regime confronts a threat to its survival, according to a senior Lebanese official speaking to The National.

The official, who requested anonymity, indicated that another round of American attacks on Iran would not automatically trigger Hezbollah's entry into the hostilities. Instead, the Lebanese armed movement would evaluate whether the fundamental existence of Iran's leadership structure is imperiled before deciding to engage. The official noted that earlier in the year, Lebanese authorities recognized the group would take up arms if Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, were killed, and that assessment was conveyed to US diplomats.

The current broader regional conflict began in late February following US and Israeli air operations against Iran. Two days after the initial strikes, Hezbollah retaliated for Khamenei's death by launching rockets across Israel's northern border. That retaliation prompted an extensive Israeli aerial bombardment across Lebanon and a ground deployment into southern border districts, where Israeli forces continue to operate.

Although Lebanon and the US arranged a framework deal in June, Hezbollah was not a signatory, rejected the arrangement, yet largely paused direct engagements with Israeli units. In the meantime, concerns persist that hostilities between Washington and Tehran could reignite following the upcoming US midterm elections. Recent diplomatic efforts, including an initiative presented by Qatari intermediaries to end hostilities and restore navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, have failed to produce an agreement, with Iranian authorities dismissing the proposal as unacceptable.

Even though three years of fighting have substantially degraded Hezbollah's fighting power, the Lebanese official said the group still holds weapon stockpiles and would likely enter the fray if Iran faced destruction.

The official also offered a positive assessment of recent security negotiations between Lebanese and Israeli representatives conducted under American auspices at US Central Command headquarters in Tampa, Florida. Rejecting local press reports of an impasse, the official described the sessions as the most constructive military talks held to date.

During the Tampa discussions, Lebanese officials sought an end to Israeli strikes and a full troop withdrawal. The broader diplomatic framework calls for disarming Hezbollah and expanding the deployment of Lebanon's national army. However, disarming the group remains a deep domestic challenge. Hezbollah insists it will not surrender its arsenal while foreign troops occupy Lebanese land, while Beirut worries that attempting to forcefully disarm the movement could destabilize the country into internal conflict.