Conflict, drought increasing risk of famine in Sudan: Monitor

A worsening combination of ongoing warfare and climate-driven drought is severely increasing the danger of famine across large swaths of Sudan, according to a report released Monday by a global food security monitoring initiative.

The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), a coalition comprising 21 aid bodies and intergovernmental institutions including the World Food Programme, UNICEF, and the World Health Organization, warned that an El Nino weather pattern has caused severe dryness across roughly half the country. The drought is exacerbating the fallout from conflict and mass displacement, cutting down food production, raising market costs, and gutting local livelihoods, particularly across the Darfur and Kordofan regions.

Health services throughout the impacted areas remain exceedingly scarce or entirely unavailable, while shortages of drinking water leave weakened communities increasingly exposed to fatal illnesses. The monitor cautioned that hunger, severe malnutrition, and related fatalities are set to climb as communities become increasingly reliant on emergency humanitarian aid.

Agricultural conditions have deteriorated significantly. In North Darfur, approximately two-thirds of all farming land is suffering from deficient plant growth, while about half of cropland across South Darfur, West Kordofan, and South Kordofan is similarly compromised. West Kordofan is experiencing its most intense dry period since 2004, and delayed seasonal rains combined with depleted emergency grain stores have crippled harvests in North Darfur.

The hunger crisis is showing severe physiological consequences among young children. In the city of Nyala, admissions of children suffering from severe acute wasting at nutrition facilities rose from roughly 5 percent to 11 percent between January and August. Meanwhile, measurements taken at two displacement sites in South Darfur revealed rates of global acute malnutrition that exceed established famine thresholds.

An earlier assessment conducted by the IPC in May recorded that almost 19.5 million individuals—representing over 40 percent of the Sudanese population—were experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity. Within that total, around 135,000 people were categorized under Phase 5, the most dangerous classification, which denotes starvation, catastrophic food deficits, and elevated mortality.

Sudan has been locked in nationwide hostilities since April 2023, following an outbreak of fighting between the national military and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project estimates the death toll from the war has reached at least 150,000, although humanitarian organizations indicate the true casualty count is probably substantially greater. Approximately 13 million people have been forced from their homes over the course of the fighting, which has split control of the country between the military in the east and center, and the RSF across western and southern territories.