ANC vote drops sharply in South African municipal elections

South Africa's governing African National Congress is heading toward a severe setback in nationwide municipal elections, with early tallies indicating its public support has plummeted to historic lows.

According to preliminary numbers with upwards of four-fifths of the ballots tallied, the political party founded by Nelson Mandela has secured just 31.8 percent of the national vote. That figure represents a decline of nearly 14 percentage points compared to its performance in the 2021 municipal cycle. The organization has governed South Africa since the fall of white-minority rule in 1994, but widespread frustration over rampant crime, high joblessness, official corruption, and decaying civic utilities has steadily eroded its base.

Official figures from the electoral commission showed voter engagement rebounded, with turnout estimated at 54.5 percent compared to 46 percent in 2021. Final national outcomes are due to be confirmed this weekend.

The centre-right Democratic Alliance held second place nationwide with 24.1 percent of the vote, while the uMkhonto weSizwe party, known as MK and headed by former president Jacob Zuma, sat in third place with 9.3 percent.

Projections indicate the ANC will forfeit its status as the leading political organization across the two most heavily populated regions, Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal. The development has triggered immediate, closed-door negotiations among rival political groups attempting to assemble municipal coalitions.

In Johannesburg, a metropolis of 4.8 million people plagued by recurrent blackouts, water shortages, and a declared 220 billion rand infrastructure shortfall, partial counts showed the Democratic Alliance leading at 40 percent. The local campaign, fronted by former Cape Town mayor Helen Zille, outpaced the ANC's 17.5 percent and ActionSA's 15.5 percent with slightly over half the city's ballots processed. Forecasts by the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research suggest the Democratic Alliance could eventually secure 34 percent of the city's vote, ahead of the ANC at 20 percent.

The Democratic Alliance is also currently ahead across all three major urban municipalities in Gauteng and is projected to retain control of Cape Town.

In KwaZulu-Natal, Zuma's MK party is poised to overtake the ANC as the dominant political force. Established in 2023, MK combines Zulu nationalist positions with promises to reallocate wealth and land. In the eThekwini metropolitan area surrounding Durban, MK held 41 percent with half the votes counted, raising the prospect of opposing parties uniting to block it from municipal power.

Under the local electoral framework, South African citizens vote for a ward representative and a party list, with council seats distributed proportionately. Once the final results are confirmed, municipal representatives will have a two-week window to appoint mayors and establish governing coalitions.